1,000 days into the Ukraine war, uncertainty lies ahead as Trump era looms

KYIV: Ukrainians are bracing for their third – and possibly most difficult – winter yet since the war started almost three years ago.
Russia has been devastating the country’s energy infrastructure with airstrikes targeting power stations and electrical grid facilities, leaving Ukrainians with rolling blackouts and no heating.
This comes two months ahead of a political shift in the United States – Ukraine’s biggest backer – following Donald Trump’s re-election as president earlier this month.
Trump’s impending return to the White House has thrown American support for war-exhausted Ukraine into uncertainty.
The 78-year-old has repeatedly criticised Washington’s provision of continued aid to Kyiv, and has pledged to end the war – without saying how.
There are worries that Trump could cut off aid and freeze the frontlines in Russia’s favour, after he takes office on Jan 20.
Some reports have suggested that the US president-elect’s peace plan may include creating a buffer zone based on the current frontlines – which means Ukraine will lose a significant portion of its territory.
While the US is expected to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine to prevent another Russian invasion, the quantity could be substantially lesser, observers said. This could also be in exchange for Kyiv to drop its aspirations to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance for the next 20 years.
Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said it may be plausible for Trump to bring both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table.
However, he noted that reaching a ceasefire agreement, especially with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions, will not be as easy as Trump may think.
“I’m very sceptical about this scenario … because for the very simple reason that Putin is not interested in peace. He (Trump) will realise that it makes no sense to negotiate with Putin,” said Merezhko.
Meanwhile, Russia has not backed down from the war.
Tuesday (Nov 19) marks the 1,000th day of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Drone attacks have intensified to an almost daily affair over the past few weeks in a bid to weaken the resolve of Ukrainians, wreaking terror across the country.
On the battlefield, North Korean soldiers have joined the fight alongside Russian forces, while Ukrainian troops have steadily lost ground.
As Moscow’s determination to control Ukraine remains unchanged, Kyiv officials have emphasised that security guarantees are crucial, especially if Trump pushes for a ceasefire.
Some Ukrainian politicians have expressed cautious optimism ahead of Trump’s presidency.
Oleh Rybachuk, a former deputy prime minister for European integration, said he doubts Kyiv will receive an invitation to join NATO in the near future.
Still, he hopes Ukraine will be able to reach a defence agreement with the US.
“We will be concentrating on security. For us, it would be enough to have real, special partnership outside of NATO, the kind of partnership the US has with Israel, probably with Taiwan, where there will be a clear commitment,” he said.
Optimism about Trump’s presidency also stems from frustration that has been mounting towards outgoing President Joe Biden’s cautious approach to aid, such as past delays in approving certain types of weapons, for fear of escalation.
“If (the Democrats) stayed in power, most probably there would be the same well-measured escalation management, where we are constantly losing so many lives and territories because we are not allowed to have enough force to counter it,” said Rybachuk.
He voiced hope that with Trump, things might be different and that he would allow Ukraine more leeway with weapons.
However, the Republican Party – which will control both the US House and Senate following elections earlier this month – has shown unwillingness to continue providing military support for Ukraine.
Now that the American population has chosen their next leader, it is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s turn to campaign for Trump’s vote to continue aid to Kyiv and help keep Ukraine’s sovereignty intact.
He was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his election win. During their phone call, Trump told Zelenskyy he would support Ukraine, without providing details.
Zelenskyy said his conversations with Trump should continue, adding: “Strong and unwavering US leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace.”